Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

563.37 – 563.43

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

443 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 111 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 187.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 187.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 187.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 187.81Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 187.81Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 187.81Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

563.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

131.4 24%

Teleop

262.1 47%

Endgame

163.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

563.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 2910, 2046

Auto

114.8 20%

Teleop

266.5 48%

Endgame

179.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score563.4pts

Blue projected score563.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.1
Score range: 450–676
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 1108 vs event baseline 627.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

991.5Season APEX957.2

131.4Auto114.8

262.1Teleop266.5

163.6Endgame179.3

195Consistency213

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	95
teleop	217	303
endgame	125	247
foul	5	20
total	443	665

Result

Final score

443 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 111 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.