Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
611.67 – 633.36
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
616 – 605
Prediction missed · off by 16.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 203.89Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 203.89Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 348Event APEX 203.89Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2
Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 211.12Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 211.12Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 211.12Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 868, 2910, 2046
70
/ 100 compatProjected
611.7 pts
~0.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 868, 2910, 2046
Auto
86.2 14%
Teleop
307.9 51%
Endgame
211.3 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5181, 7769, 1690
71
/ 100 compatProjected
633.4 pts
~1.2 RP (championship)
Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690
Auto
140.4 23%
Teleop
343.4 55%
Endgame
139.9 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score611.7pts
Blue projected score633.4pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample32alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -21.7
- Score range
- 496–749
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
957.2Season APEX1020
86.2Auto140.4
307.9Teleop343.4
211.3Endgame139.9
246Consistency177
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 137 | 166 |
| teleop | 282 | 328 |
| endgame | 197 | 111 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 616 | 605 |
Result
Final score
616 – 605
Prediction missed · off by 16.3 pts
Match videos
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