Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

667.26 – 606

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

699 – 720

Prediction missed · off by 72.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 222.42Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 222.42Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 222.42Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 202Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 202Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 202Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 6800, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

667.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 6800, 254

Auto

174.6 26%

Teleop

329.7 50%

Endgame

159.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

606 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

127.3 21%

Teleop

334.1 56%

Endgame

136.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.42 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score667.3pts

Blue projected score606pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.3
Score range: 491–782
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1419 vs event baseline 639.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1116Season APEX1020

174.6Auto127.3

329.7Teleop334.1

159.8Endgame136.7

246Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	165	182
teleop	326	373
endgame	203	150
foul	5	15
total	699	720

Result

Final score

699 – 720

Prediction missed · off by 72.9 pts

Match videos

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