Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
633.24 – 717.69
26%74%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
565 – 692
Prediction correct · off by 47 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 211.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 348Event APEX 211.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 211.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 239.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 239.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 239.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 868, 2046, 2910
66
/ 100 compatProjected
633.2 pts
~0.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 868, 2046, 2910
Auto
87.7 14%
Teleop
308.8 49%
Endgame
227.6 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4065, 4414, 1323
76
/ 100 compatProjected
717.7 pts
~1.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323
Auto
176.3 25%
Teleop
362.8 52%
Endgame
162.5 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.58 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score633.2pts
Blue projected score717.7pts
Red win probability26%
Event bonus sample32alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -84.5
- Score range
- 518–833
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
957.2Season APEX1072.2
87.7Auto176.3
308.8Teleop362.8
227.6Endgame162.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 83 | 186 |
| teleop | 306 | 336 |
| endgame | 176 | 145 |
| foul | 0 | 25 |
| total | 565 | 692 |
Result
Final score
565 – 692
Prediction correct · off by 47 pts
Match videos
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