Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

620.31 – 528.93

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

769 – 638

Prediction correct · off by 128.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1116 ±9.9

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 206.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 206.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 206.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 176.31Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 176.31Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 176.31Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 6800, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

620.3 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 6800, 254

Auto

176.3 29%

Teleop

313.9 51%

Endgame

125.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

528.9 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

120.0 23%

Teleop

255.7 49%

Endgame

146.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score620.3pts

Blue projected score528.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.4
Score range: 415–734
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1407 vs event baseline 633.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1116Season APEX991.5

176.3Auto120

313.9Teleop255.7

125.6Endgame146.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	171	156
teleop	364	276
endgame	234	201
foul	0	5
total	769	638

Result

Final score

769 – 638

Prediction correct · off by 128.9 pts

Match videos

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