Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

660.78 – 588.96

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

712 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 117.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 220.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 220.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 220.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 196.32Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 196.32Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 196.32Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 4414, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

660.8 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323

Auto

163.0 25%

Teleop

321.5 50%

Endgame

156.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 2046, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

589 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 2046, 2910

Auto

108.7 19%

Teleop

294.8 50%

Endgame

182.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.48 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score660.8pts

Blue projected score589pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.8
Score range: 475–775
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1118 vs event baseline 632.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1072.2Season APEX957.2

163Auto108.7

321.5Teleop294.8

156Endgame182.3

180Consistency237

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	177	153
teleop	381	92
endgame	154	161
foul	0	0
total	712	406

Result

Final score

712 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 117.1 pts

Match videos

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