Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

709.59 – 612.72

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

456 – 518

Prediction missed · off by 174.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 236.53Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 236.53Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 236.53Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 204.24Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 204.24Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 204.24Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 4414, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

709.6 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323

Auto

179.4 26%

Teleop

354.3 51%

Endgame

157.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

612.7 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 2910, 2046

Auto

98.4 16%

Teleop

301.7 50%

Endgame

207.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score709.6pts

Blue projected score612.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.9
Score range: 497–826
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 974 vs event baseline 642.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1072.2Season APEX957.2

179.4Auto98.4

354.3Teleop301.7

157Endgame207.8

237Consistency249

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	154
teleop	200	271
endgame	140	93
foul	5	0
total	456	518

Result

Final score

456 – 518

Prediction missed · off by 174.2 pts

Match videos

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