FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

459.95 – 411.16

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

430 – 473

Prediction missed · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.2 ±10.4

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 137.23Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 184.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 138.38Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±8.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 114.83Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 152.19Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 144.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 11415, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

460 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3136, 11415, 1086

Auto

65.0 14%

Teleop

252.2 55%

Endgame

139.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 346, 619

Auto

72.0 18%

Teleop

259.3 64%

Endgame

73.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score460pts

Blue projected score411.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 359–512
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 903 vs event baseline 290.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.2Season APEX700.2

65Auto72

252.2Teleop259.3

139.8Endgame73.2

95Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	72
teleop	244	273
endgame	117	123
foul	0	5
total	430	473

Result

Final score

430 – 473

Prediction missed · off by 45.9 pts

Match videos

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