Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
423.6 – 430.07
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
411 – 370
Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±8.7
Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 119.03Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 166.31Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 138.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681 ±8.7
Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 104.21Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 149.41Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 176.45Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1727, 4099, 9072
85
/ 100 compatProjected
423.6 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1727, 4099, 9072
Auto
90.7 22%
Teleop
232.2 56%
Endgame
93.3 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 614, 686, 1908
87
/ 100 compatProjected
430.1 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 614, 686, 1908
Auto
70.3 16%
Teleop
249.1 58%
Endgame
107.3 25%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score423.6pts
Blue projected score430.1pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample246alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -6.5
- Score range
- 372–482
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
710Season APEX681
90.7Auto70.3
232.2Teleop249.1
93.3Endgame107.3
88Consistency137
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 112 | 36 |
| teleop | 205 | 209 |
| endgame | 94 | 125 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 411 | 370 |
Result
Final score
411 – 370
Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts
Match videos
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