FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

370.57 – 407.13

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

367 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.8 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 118.58Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 104.92Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 147.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±8.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 113.02Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 150.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 143.22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 8592, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 422, 8592, 1731

Auto

66.3 18%

Teleop

219.8 60%

Endgame

82.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 346, 619

Auto

71.1 18%

Teleop

255.1 64%

Endgame

73.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score370.6pts

Blue projected score407.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 319–459
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 798 vs event baseline 286.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.8Season APEX700.2

66.3Auto71.1

219.8Teleop255.1

82.1Endgame73.9

116Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	78
teleop	210	278
endgame	83	70
foul	0	5
total	367	431

Result

Final score

367 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.