FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

365.6 – 469.29

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

311 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.7 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 121.17Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 124.75Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 119.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 687.9 ±9.3

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 166.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 105.34Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 197.73Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 122, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 540, 122, 1629

Auto

67.0 19%

Teleop

210.1 58%

Endgame

84.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 10224, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5338, 10224, 2106

Auto

73.3 16%

Teleop

269.9 58%

Endgame

124.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score365.6pts

Blue projected score469.3pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.7
Score range: 315–520
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 285.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.7Season APEX687.9

67Auto73.3

210.1Teleop269.9

84.2Endgame124.8

84Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	52
teleop	169	249
endgame	47	66
foul	30	25
total	311	392

Result

Final score

311 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 pts

Match videos

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