FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.39 – 429.88

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 681 ±8.7

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 105.15Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 149.98Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 178.26Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±8.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 121.47Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 157.42Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 150.99Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 686, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 686, 1908

Auto

73.4 17%

Teleop

258.4 60%

Endgame

98.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 346, 619

Auto

72.8 17%

Teleop

264.8 63%

Endgame

84.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score433.4pts

Blue projected score429.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.5
Score range: 379–484
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 285.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

681Season APEX700.2

73.4Auto72.8

258.4Teleop264.8

98.7Endgame84.2

141Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	64
teleop	215	218
endgame	140	32
foul	5	5
total	421	319

Result

Final score

421 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.