FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.22 – 385.94

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±8.7

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 122.66Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 170.48Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 143.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.8 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 124.45Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 109.4Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 152.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 4099, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 4099, 9072

Auto

95.6 22%

Teleop

235.4 55%

Endgame

95.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 8592, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 422, 8592, 1731

Auto

67.3 18%

Teleop

238.3 62%

Endgame

78.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score436.2pts

Blue projected score385.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.3
Score range: 335–487
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 284.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710Season APEX596.8

95.6Auto67.3

235.4Teleop238.3

95.1Endgame78.8

77Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	62
teleop	212	146
endgame	84	91
foul	0	5
total	369	304

Result

Final score

369 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 pts

Match videos

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