FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

473.05 – 439.51

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

396 – 489

Prediction missed · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.8 ±8.7

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 99.58Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 171.87Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 201.6Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.2 ±10.4

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 130.86Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 176.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 132.3Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 5338, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

473.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2199, 5338, 2106

Auto

79.7 17%

Teleop

274.8 58%

Endgame

117.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 11415, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3136, 11415, 1086

Auto

66.8 15%

Teleop

238.3 55%

Endgame

130.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score473.1pts

Blue projected score439.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.5
Score range: 389–524
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 885 vs event baseline 283.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.8Season APEX447.2

79.7Auto66.8

274.8Teleop238.3

117.7Endgame130.8

96Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	51
teleop	199	270
endgame	112	163
foul	5	5
total	396	489

Result

Final score

396 – 489

Prediction missed · off by 63.3 pts

Match videos

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