FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

503.88 – 380.5

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 821.4 ±8.7

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 155.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 222.35Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 125.93Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.7 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 125.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 130.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 124.7Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 449, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

503.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 836, 449, 5549

Auto

79.2 16%

Teleop

311.1 63%

Endgame

105.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 122, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 540, 122, 1629

Auto

65.4 17%

Teleop

214.8 57%

Endgame

96.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score503.9pts

Blue projected score380.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.4
Score range: 330–555
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 282.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

821.4Season APEX577.7

79.2Auto65.4

311.1Teleop214.8

105.3Endgame96.6

114Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	70
teleop	215	180
endgame	62	31
foul	0	5
total	345	286

Result

Final score

345 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 pts

Match videos

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