FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

411.97 – 424.8

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

527 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 116.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±8.7

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 114.9Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 162.62Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 134.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±8.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 119.29Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 156.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 149.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 4099, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

412 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 4099, 9072

Auto

88.9 22%

Teleop

225.9 56%

Endgame

91.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 346, 619

Auto

73.5 18%

Teleop

262.8 63%

Endgame

82.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score412pts

Blue projected score424.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.8
Score range: 359–478
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 834 vs event baseline 294.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710Season APEX700.2

88.9Auto73.5

225.9Teleop262.8

91.9Endgame82.9

103Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	80
teleop	255	149
endgame	143	78
foul	0	0
total	527	307

Result

Final score

527 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 116.4 pts

Match videos

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