FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

420.2 – 421.76

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

402 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 681 ±8.7

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 101.1Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 145.68Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 173.42Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±8.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 118.25Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 155.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 148Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 686, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 686, 1908

Auto

66.4 16%

Teleop

241.8 58%

Endgame

109.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 346, 619

Auto

72.3 17%

Teleop

261.9 63%

Endgame

81.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score420.2pts

Blue projected score421.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.6
Score range: 367–475
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 847 vs event baseline 293.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

681Season APEX700.2

66.4Auto72.3

241.8Teleop261.9

109.6Endgame81

139Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	81
teleop	197	269
endgame	143	95
foul	0	0
total	402	445

Result

Final score

402 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Match videos

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