Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
491.32 – 422.4
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
401 – 351
Prediction correct · off by 80.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 821.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 218.67Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 254Event APEX 122.38Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 150.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±8.7
Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 119.03Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 165.84Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 137.53Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 449, 5549, 836
85
/ 100 compatProjected
491.3 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 449, 5549, 836
Auto
86.5 18%
Teleop
293.8 61%
Endgame
105.2 22%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1727, 4099, 9072
85
/ 100 compatProjected
422.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1727, 4099, 9072
Auto
94.8 23%
Teleop
228.2 55%
Endgame
93.1 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score491.3pts
Blue projected score422.4pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample246alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 24%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 68.9
- Score range
- 369–544
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
821.4Season APEX710
86.5Auto94.8
293.8Teleop228.2
105.2Endgame93.1
100Consistency95
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 98 | 56 |
| teleop | 201 | 208 |
| endgame | 97 | 87 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 401 | 351 |
Result
Final score
401 – 351
Prediction correct · off by 80.9 pts
Match videos
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