FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

419.39 – 448.4

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 681 ±8.7

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 101Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 145.57Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 172.82Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 757.8 ±8.7

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 95.92Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 161.21Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 191.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 686, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 686, 1908

Auto

64.0 15%

Teleop

242.2 58%

Endgame

110.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2199, 5338, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2199, 5338, 2106

Auto

77.6 17%

Teleop

256.6 58%

Endgame

109.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score419.4pts

Blue projected score448.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 367–500
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 782 vs event baseline 291.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

681Season APEX757.8

64Auto77.6

242.2Teleop256.6

110.4Endgame109.4

141Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	62
teleop	234	203
endgame	104	101
foul	0	0
total	416	366

Result

Final score

416 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 pts

Match videos

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