FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.15 – 263.06

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±9.8

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 95.14Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 36.75Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.26Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.1 ±9.3

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 119.59Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 90.53Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 52.94Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 3361, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2199, 3361, 8590

Auto

32.2 21%

Teleop

84.5 55%

Endgame

36.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 620, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 620, 11318

Auto

38.2 15%

Teleop

152.9 59%

Endgame

69.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164.1pts

Blue projected score263.1pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.9
Score range: 113–314
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 281.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.9Season APEX476.1

32.2Auto38.2

84.5Teleop152.9

36.7Endgame69.6

126Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	40
teleop	63	167
endgame	37	21
foul	0	25
total	139	253

Result

Final score

139 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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