FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

259.29 – 264.49

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.5 ±10.5

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 62.57Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 22.61Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 174.11Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.4 ±9.3

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 157.68Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 100.21Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 6.6Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4541, 1111, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4541, 1111, 1908

Auto

48.6 20%

Teleop

150.4 61%

Endgame

49.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 614, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1731, 614, 5587

Auto

72.4 27%

Teleop

160.6 60%

Endgame

33.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score259.3pts

Blue projected score264.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 208–315
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 282.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.5Season APEX519.4

48.6Auto72.4

150.4Teleop160.6

49Endgame33.7

123Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	69
teleop	86	104
endgame	65	51
foul	15	0
total	233	224

Result

Final score

233 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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