FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.95 – 218.6

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 102.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±10.4

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 62.43Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 84.94Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 97.58Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455 ±9.8

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 92.51Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 87.93Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 38.16Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 1262, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

245 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 339, 1262, 10224

Auto

31.3 13%

Teleop

131.0 54%

Endgame

80.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 888, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 888, 10679

Auto

67.4 31%

Teleop

122.8 57%

Endgame

23.8 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245pts

Blue projected score218.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.3
Score range: 168–296
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 281.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.4Season APEX455

31.3Auto67.4

131Teleop122.8

80.9Endgame23.8

111Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	67
teleop	93	214
endgame	74	96
foul	0	15
total	213	392

Result

Final score

213 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 102.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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