FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.07 – 361.69

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

395 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 93.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.3 ±9.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 116.4Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 118.84Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 56.83Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.4 ±9.8

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 62.78Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 128.66Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 170.25Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 9072, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1086, 9072, 2377

Auto

70.1 24%

Teleop

150.0 52%

Endgame

67.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3748, 3136, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3748, 3136, 4099

Auto

78.9 22%

Teleop

195.6 55%

Endgame

81.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292.1pts

Blue projected score361.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: 242–412
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 840 vs event baseline 280.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.3Season APEX498.4

70.1Auto78.9

150Teleop195.6

67.6Endgame81.3

144Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	56
teleop	245	253
endgame	75	131
foul	0	5
total	395	445

Result

Final score

395 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 93.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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