FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.17 – 244.62

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 254

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±9.8

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 147.26Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -12.34Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 53.25Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.6 ±9.8

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 150.31Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 25.26Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 69.05Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 686, 9033, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 686, 9033, 1389

Auto

30.9 16%

Teleop

134.2 70%

Endgame

27.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 836, 2421, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 836, 2421, 5243

Auto

66.8 28%

Teleop

119.5 50%

Endgame

52.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score188.2pts

Blue projected score244.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 138–295
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 280.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.8Season APEX453.6

30.9Auto66.8

134.2Teleop119.5

27.2Endgame52

140Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	50
teleop	179	125
endgame	59	64
foul	0	15
total	280	254

Result

Final score

280 – 254

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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