FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

260.37 – 337.35

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439 ±9.8

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 94.63Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 41.49Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 124.25Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.6 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 125.65Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 46.1Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 165.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8592, 1719, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8592, 1719, 1629

Auto

45.5 18%

Teleop

157.6 61%

Endgame

55.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 5804, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 422, 5804, 5338

Auto

53.7 16%

Teleop

183.4 55%

Endgame

94.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score260.4pts

Blue projected score337.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: 209–388
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 659 vs event baseline 282.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439Season APEX580.6

45.5Auto53.7

157.6Teleop183.4

55.1Endgame94.7

77Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	66
teleop	125	219
endgame	89	98
foul	0	5
total	271	388

Result

Final score

271 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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