FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

363.95 – 399.59

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

351 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602 ±9.3

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 153.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 74.1Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 136.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.3 ±10.4

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 128.21Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 86.88Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 184.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 346, 3939, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

364 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 346, 3939, 540

Auto

57.0 16%

Teleop

215.3 60%

Endgame

87.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 4472, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 122, 4472, 11415

Auto

60.6 15%

Teleop

217.6 55%

Endgame

117.2 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score364pts

Blue projected score399.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.6
Score range: 314–450
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 279.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602Season APEX461.3

57Auto60.6

215.3Teleop217.6

87.1Endgame117.2

133Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	51
teleop	222	220
endgame	92	91
foul	0	15
total	351	377

Result

Final score

351 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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