FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.48 – 408.16

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 433

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.5 ±9.8

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 56.71Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 107.97Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 27.8Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 141.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 224.62Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 42.01Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 5549, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2890, 5549, 2068

Auto

34.0 18%

Teleop

99.1 53%

Endgame

53.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 619, 449, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 619, 449, 11425

Auto

71.2 18%

Teleop

240.3 59%

Endgame

92.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score192.5pts

Blue projected score408.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -215.7
Score range: 142–458
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 704 vs event baseline 278.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.5Season APEX561.4

34Auto71.2

99.1Teleop240.3

53.6Endgame92.4

88Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	86
teleop	140	243
endgame	89	104
foul	5	0
total	271	433

Result

Final score

271 – 433

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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