FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.83 – 315.5

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±10.4

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 60.8Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 77.62Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 40.41Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.2 ±9.8

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 42.11Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 63.1Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 210.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5724, 10004, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5724, 10004, 3258

Auto

35.2 20%

Teleop

103.9 58%

Endgame

40.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1895, 2537, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1895, 2537, 2106

Auto

54.4 17%

Teleop

187.4 60%

Endgame

71.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score178.8pts

Blue projected score315.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.7
Score range: 129–366
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 280.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.7Season APEX525.2

35.2Auto54.4

103.9Teleop187.4

40.3Endgame71.7

71Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	40	173
endgame	12	94
foul	0	0
total	69	284

Result

Final score

69 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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