FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.1 – 212.69

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.9 ±9.9

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 174.3Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 123.75Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 27.05Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.5 ±10.4

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 86.91Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.64Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 93.14Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 9072, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4099, 9072, 1111

Auto

79.5 25%

Teleop

178.7 56%

Endgame

61.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 888, 8590, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 888, 8590, 620

Auto

31.6 15%

Teleop

136.3 67%

Endgame

36.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.1pts

Blue projected score212.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.4
Score range: 163–375
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 280.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.9Season APEX327.5

79.5Auto31.6

178.7Teleop136.3

61.7Endgame36.9

81Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	55
teleop	94	66
endgame	64	104
foul	15	5
total	280	230

Result

Final score

280 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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