FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.69 – 128.69

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 81.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.5 ±9.8

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX -Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX -Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.2 ±10.4

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX -Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX -Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9033, 5338, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9033, 5338, 3136

Auto

38.6 30%

Teleop

64.3 50%

Endgame

25.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 339, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2377, 339, 888

Auto

38.6 30%

Teleop

64.3 50%

Endgame

25.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score128.7pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 83–175
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 257.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.5Season APEX337.2

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	45
teleop	87	139
endgame	10	57
foul	0	5
total	174	246

Result

Final score

174 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 81.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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