FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.57 – 355.4

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.4 ±10.4

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 83.13Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 3.96Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 64.48Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.6 ±9.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 124.09Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 168.93Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 62.38Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 5587, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1262, 5587, 5243

Auto

31.0 20%

Teleop

76.0 48%

Endgame

49.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 1731, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1086, 1731, 1389

Auto

72.6 20%

Teleop

207.5 58%

Endgame

75.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score151.6pts

Blue projected score355.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -203.8
Score range: 101–406
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 280.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.4Season APEX476.6

31Auto72.6

76Teleop207.5

49.8Endgame75.7

123Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	77
teleop	99	141
endgame	16	57
foul	30	0
total	186	275

Result

Final score

186 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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