FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.19 – 340.76

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±10.4

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -9.58Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 66.26Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 28.51Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.8 ±8.7

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 170.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 63.04Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 107.06Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9033, 339, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9033, 339, 2421

Auto

42.0 52%

Teleop

8.4 10%

Endgame

30.5 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 11318, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5338, 11318, 614

Auto

79.6 24%

Teleop

193.2 57%

Endgame

64.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score340.8pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -255.6
Score range: 34–392
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 282.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255Season APEX631.8

42Auto79.6

8.4Teleop193.2

30.5Endgame64.6

112Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	53
teleop	25	107
endgame	10	85
foul	0	5
total	55	250

Result

Final score

55 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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