FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.75 – 328.88

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

399 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 107.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.4 ±9.8

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 118.59Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 41.25Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 141.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.1 ±8.7

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 110.45Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 82.25Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 136.18Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 122, 5804, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 122, 5804, 346

Auto

45.6 15%

Teleop

183.4 61%

Endgame

70.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 401, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 401, 686

Auto

67.1 21%

Teleop

189.1 59%

Endgame

65.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score301.8pts

Blue projected score328.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.1
Score range: 251–380
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 280.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.4Season APEX658.1

45.6Auto67.1

183.4Teleop189.1

70.5Endgame65.8

76Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	57
teleop	207	310
endgame	143	80
foul	15	0
total	399	447

Result

Final score

399 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 107.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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