FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.04 – 320.3

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.9 ±9.8

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 27.72Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 172.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 133.54Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490 ±9.8

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 127.97Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 88.68Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 103.65Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 11415, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

334 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10679, 11415, 836

Auto

54.8 16%

Teleop

214.5 64%

Endgame

66.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 4472, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3136, 4472, 5549

Auto

59.3 19%

Teleop

181.4 58%

Endgame

70.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334pts

Blue projected score320.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 270–384
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 279.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.9Season APEX490

54.8Auto59.3

214.5Teleop181.4

66.2Endgame70.8

89Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	27
teleop	266	151
endgame	127	150
foul	0	15
total	463	343

Result

Final score

463 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.