FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.88 – 207.62

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±10.4

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 51.67Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 57.46Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 36.75Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.7 ±9.8

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 70.94Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 114.73Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 21.95Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 4541, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2890, 4541, 11425

Auto

58.4 41%

Teleop

56.3 40%

Endgame

26.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10004, 422, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10004, 422, 3361

Auto

26.1 13%

Teleop

131.0 66%

Endgame

41.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score145.9pts

Blue projected score207.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.7
Score range: 96–258
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 279.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.2Season APEX388.7

58.4Auto26.1

56.3Teleop131

26.2Endgame41.7

118Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	62
teleop	113	171
endgame	80	64
foul	0	0
total	213	297

Result

Final score

213 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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