FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.99 – 171.4

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.1 ±10.4

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 26.88Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 42.17Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 61.94Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.7 ±9.8

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 85.9Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 26.91Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 58.59Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 1895, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2068, 1895, 3748

Auto

21.6 18%

Teleop

64.2 53%

Endgame

36.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2199, 1719, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2199, 1719, 2537

Auto

35.7 21%

Teleop

80.1 47%

Endgame

55.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score131pts

Blue projected score171.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.4
Score range: 80–222
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 280.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.1Season APEX408.7

21.6Auto35.7

64.2Teleop80.1

36Endgame55.7

118Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	82
teleop	52	110
endgame	44	50
foul	0	0
total	124	242

Result

Final score

124 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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