FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.07 – 328.26

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

299 – 442

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.2 ±9.8

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 43.86Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 75.38Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 217.83Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.6 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 124.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 89.27Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 114.35Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3258, 3939, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3258, 3939, 2106

Auto

52.7 16%

Teleop

220.0 66%

Endgame

62.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 10224, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 540, 10224, 1629

Auto

52.5 16%

Teleop

180.1 55%

Endgame

96.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score337.1pts

Blue projected score328.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 278–387
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 741 vs event baseline 278.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.2Season APEX548.6

52.7Auto52.5

220Teleop180.1

62.1Endgame96.9

73Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	65
teleop	150	246
endgame	82	131
foul	0	0
total	299	442

Result

Final score

299 – 442

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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