FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.98 – 222.46

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 82.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.4 ±9.3

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 118.49Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 124.84Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 110.65Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.3 ±9.8

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 52.01Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 114.22Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 56.23Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 122, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

354 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 122, 1727

Auto

63.6 18%

Teleop

202.9 58%

Endgame

83.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5243, 9072, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5243, 9072, 339

Auto

63.7 30%

Teleop

84.5 39%

Endgame

67.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.4 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score354pts

Blue projected score222.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.5
Score range: 172–404
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 647 vs event baseline 278.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.4Season APEX437.3

63.6Auto63.7

202.9Teleop84.5

83.7Endgame67.6

56Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	92
teleop	158	183
endgame	72	65
foul	0	0
total	307	340

Result

Final score

307 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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