FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.81 – 146.85

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.4 ±9.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 165.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 18.3Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 162.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.2 ±10.5

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 76.32Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 29.36Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 41.17Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 2421, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11415, 2421, 5338

Auto

68.2 20%

Teleop

156.9 46%

Endgame

116.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 1111, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 1111, 5804

Auto

36.4 25%

Teleop

74.7 51%

Endgame

34.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score345.8pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199
Score range: 97–396
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 647 vs event baseline 277.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.4Season APEX390.2

68.2Auto36.4

156.9Teleop74.7

116.3Endgame34.3

93Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	42
teleop	262	107
endgame	103	27
foul	15	10
total	461	186

Result

Final score

461 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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