FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.57 – 168.47

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

201 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.8 ±9.8

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 33.75Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 113.13Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 24.69Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.8 ±9.8

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 175.94Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 1.3Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -8.77Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11425, 422, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11425, 422, 10679

Auto

37.4 22%

Teleop

95.0 56%

Endgame

36.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 5587, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4099, 5587, 9033

Auto

51.6 31%

Teleop

88.1 53%

Endgame

27.3 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score171.6pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 118–222
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 278.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.8Season APEX440.8

37.4Auto51.6

95Teleop88.1

36.9Endgame27.3

87Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	52
teleop	119	102
endgame	35	49
foul	0	0
total	201	203

Result

Final score

201 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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