FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.24 – 210.36

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±10.4

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 36.37Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 56.03Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 63.84Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.6 ±9.8

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 53.49Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 136.88Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 19.99Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8590, 2890, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8590, 2890, 2377

Auto

36.8 25%

Teleop

93.2 62%

Endgame

19.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4541, 686, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4541, 686, 1719

Auto

66.9 32%

Teleop

114.6 56%

Endgame

24.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score210.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.1
Score range: 106–260
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 278.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.5Season APEX448.6

36.8Auto66.9

93.2Teleop114.6

19.6Endgame24.4

134Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	46
teleop	83	160
endgame	42	61
foul	0	0
total	150	267

Result

Final score

150 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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