FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

379.13 – 383.2

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.1 ±9.8

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 231.17Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 90.64Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 57.32Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.3 ±9.3

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 62.9Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 127.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 192.33Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 10224, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 449, 10224, 2537

Auto

57.1 15%

Teleop

221.0 59%

Endgame

97.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1389, 540, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1389, 540, 1908

Auto

61.1 16%

Teleop

224.8 60%

Endgame

89.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score379.1pts

Blue projected score383.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.1
Score range: 329–433
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 277.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.1Season APEX545.3

57.1Auto61.1

221Teleop224.8

97.4Endgame89.7

104Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	45
teleop	224	206
endgame	102	111
foul	0	5
total	395	367

Result

Final score

395 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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