FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.72 – 223.31

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 746.3 ±8.7

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 212.69Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 91.94Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 55.09Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.8 ±10.4

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 85.18Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 61.4Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 76.73Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2106, 5549, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2106, 5549, 11318

Auto

51.2 14%

Teleop

224.6 62%

Endgame

83.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 3748, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1262, 3748, 3939

Auto

22.5 10%

Teleop

157.2 71%

Endgame

42.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score359.7pts

Blue projected score223.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.4
Score range: 173–410
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 276.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

746.3Season APEX342.8

51.2Auto22.5

224.6Teleop157.2

83.7Endgame42.2

87Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	33
teleop	290	154
endgame	40	77
foul	20	0
total	437	264

Result

Final score

437 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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