FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

393.63 – 260.03

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

408 – 485

Prediction missed · off by 119.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.5 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 149.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 178.01Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 65.73Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.3

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 107.55Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 91.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 60.8Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 1731, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 619, 1731, 5724

Auto

71.8 18%

Teleop

236.7 60%

Endgame

84.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 1629, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

260 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3136, 1629, 2199

Auto

54.9 22%

Teleop

148.2 58%

Endgame

51.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score393.6pts

Blue projected score260pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.6
Score range: 211–443
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 893 vs event baseline 273.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.5Season APEX541.8

71.8Auto54.9

236.7Teleop148.2

84.7Endgame51.8

139Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	50
teleop	259	261
endgame	68	174
foul	10	0
total	408	485

Result

Final score

408 – 485

Prediction missed · off by 119.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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