FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.09 – 317.91

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.6 ±10.4

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 88.35Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 38.81Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 20.93Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±9.8

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 158.84Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 122.43Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 36.64Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 3258, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 888, 3258, 2068

Auto

43.3 30%

Teleop

80.6 57%

Endgame

18.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 8592, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 346, 8592, 3361

Auto

40.3 13%

Teleop

200.4 65%

Endgame

68.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score317.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.8
Score range: 99–367
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 274.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.6Season APEX487.6

43.3Auto40.3

80.6Teleop200.4

18.5Endgame68.8

81Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	28
teleop	109	192
endgame	38	31
foul	0	5
total	190	256

Result

Final score

190 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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