FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.11 – 251.57

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±10.4

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 39.88Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 47.99Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 59.24Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592.9 ±9.3

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 32.01Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 118.11Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 101.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 5804, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10679, 5804, 5243

Auto

35.1 24%

Teleop

70.5 47%

Endgame

43.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 836, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11425, 836, 9072

Auto

54.3 21%

Teleop

157.5 62%

Endgame

42.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score147.1pts

Blue projected score251.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.5
Score range: 97–302
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 275.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.5Season APEX592.9

35.1Auto54.3

70.5Teleop157.5

43.6Endgame42.3

71Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	91
teleop	36	167
endgame	20	58
foul	0	15
total	99	331

Result

Final score

99 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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