FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.86 – 106.66

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.4 ±10.4

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 48.82Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 11.57Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -0.53Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.7 ±11

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 69.3Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 6.71Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 30.65Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10004, 1719, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10004, 1719, 9033

Auto

26.2 39%

Teleop

39.6 60%

Endgame

0.7 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4472, 5587, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4472, 5587, 1111

Auto

24.2 22%

Teleop

54.0 49%

Endgame

32.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score59.9pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.8
Score range: 10–157
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 277.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.4Season APEX287.7

26.2Auto24.2

39.6Teleop54

0.7Endgame32.5

135Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	42
teleop	73	75
endgame	17	46
foul	0	0
total	116	163

Result

Final score

116 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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