FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.3 – 226.29

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 130.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±9.8

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 84.83Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 83.55Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 148.92Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.6 ±9.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 106.69Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 46.68Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 72.92Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1389, 2377, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1389, 2377, 614

Auto

51.8 17%

Teleop

193.2 62%

Endgame

67.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 2890, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1086, 2890, 401

Auto

49.9 22%

Teleop

111.6 50%

Endgame

60.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score317.3pts

Blue projected score226.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91
Score range: 176–367
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 277.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.5Season APEX438.6

51.8Auto49.9

193.2Teleop111.6

67.6Endgame60.7

172Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	113
teleop	102	133
endgame	14	84
foul	0	0
total	160	330

Result

Final score

160 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 130.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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