FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.71 – 134.71

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.4 ±9.3

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX -Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX -Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413 ±9.8

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX -Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX -Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 1629, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2421, 1629, 1727

Auto

40.4 30%

Teleop

67.4 50%

Endgame

26.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 1895, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11425, 1895, 686

Auto

40.4 30%

Teleop

67.4 50%

Endgame

26.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score134.7pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 87–183
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 269.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.4Season APEX413

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	38
teleop	66	95
endgame	48	46
foul	0	0
total	174	179

Result

Final score

174 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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