FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.91 – 377.39

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.4 ±9.8

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 26.68Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 120.27Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 87.96Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.6 ±9.8

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 211.79Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 100.67Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 64.93Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1895, 422, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1895, 422, 3939

Auto

32.6 14%

Teleop

136.0 58%

Endgame

65.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1908, 10224, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1908, 10224, 3748

Auto

45.4 12%

Teleop

233.7 62%

Endgame

97.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.9pts

Blue projected score377.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.5
Score range: 185–427
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 277.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.4Season APEX473.6

32.6Auto45.4

136Teleop233.7

65.2Endgame97

119Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	38
teleop	106	186
endgame	51	67
foul	35	15
total	221	306

Result

Final score

221 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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